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When to Accept a Double
A common mistake intermediate players make is to double with a position that definitely threatens to improve a good position, but is unlikely to become overpowering. For example: your opponent threatens to make either of two points, but he actually needs to make both of them to wipe you out. So take the cube.
Equally, the further away the game is from ending, the more likely it is you should take. The more right moves your opponent must make, the more chances he has to err or roll badly. The more chances you have to turn the game around, the more willing you should be to take.
For example: if you need to hit in order to win and can expect only one indirect shot, you should drop. But if you can anticipate two winning indirect shots, you have a take. Count the ways you might win the game: a couple of indirect shots, perhaps a direct shot, together with some racing chances typically adds up to a take.
A way to develop take decisions is to think about it while your opponent is shaking the dice. What would you do if he doubles? Drop? Take it confidently? Take reluctantly? Drop immediately? In any case, when the cube comes around, it should be something you're prepared for, no matter what is your decision.
A benefit from thinking about the cube every roll is that it helps you become more aware of how positions develop from no double, to double/take, to double/drop. This should help you with both doubling and taking decisions and also further your awareness of
development and timing in the game.
When it comes right down to it, should you take the cube, you must have a winning strategy and a plan involving the cube ahead of time. If you can't come up with a plan, drop.
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